It is highly unlikely that the Federal Open Market Committee will cut interest rates on January 29. However, a cut in March or May could be possible.

The Federal Reserve will hold its first policy meeting of the year on Jan. 28 and 29, where it is widely expected to keep interest rates right where they are after cutting three times since September.

Guggenheim Partners' chief investment officer forecast on Monday that the U.S. Federal Reserve is likely to cut interest rates roughly every quarter in 2025, bringing the reduction to around 75 basis points or even a full percentage point this year.

But minutes from their December meeting suggest that the decision was a close call — and that there is no guarantee policymakers will lower rates again anytime soon. The minutes of the central bank’s Dec.

Due to the stronger-than-expected jobs report, Bank of America economists revised the Fed outlook for this year: “We no longer expect any additional rate cuts,” economists wrote in a report on Monday. "Inflation is stuck above target, with risks skewed to the upside, activity is strong, and the labor market now appears to have stabilized."

As mentioned, mortgage rates haven't fallen in line with the Fed's rate cuts because they depend on factors beyond the agency's benchmark rate, such as the economy and 10-year Treasury bond yields. For example, when the 10-year treasury rate goes up, mortgage rates tend to follow, and vice-versa.

Fears of elevated interest rates dampened the mood on Wall Street at the start of this year–but cooling core inflation and dovish comments by Federal Reserve governor Christopher Waller have given investors reason to feel a bit more cheerful this week.