Even as Mexico President Claudia Sheinbaum attempts to quell concerns over Donald Trump’s threat of 25% tariffs, economists are looking glumly at the trouble ahead should the US president-elect actually follow through.

A bit more than 50 days before taking the oath of office a second time, Trump took to social media this week to threaten the top three U.S. trading partners (Mexico, Canada, China). He vowed to impose tariffs of 25% on all products coming from our next-door neighbors, and to levy an additional 10% import duty on goods from America’s Asian rival.